Natural environment and impacts (WP1)

Objectives

– Find better ways of incorporating energy and climate models into complex natural environments.

– Make a fundamental breakthrough in developing a new generation of integrated assessment models (IAMs).

– Discover and explore new interlinkages between energy, water and food systems.

– Contribute to increasing resilience to climate-related extreme events.

– Improve the connection between pollution suppression policies and energy and climate change policies

– Increase the understanding of the environmental and health impacts of climate change and emissions reduction.

– Address the challenges of the rapid development of low-carbon technologies, renewable energy resources, critical materials and infrastructure in innovative ways.

Task 1.1: Climate and integrated assessment models (IAMs)

This task involves considering the impact of energy and climate processes on the natural environment. It addresses the valuation of market and non-market effects of climate change. A fundamental understanding of statistics and connections to the natural sciences, particularly those dealing with climate and Earth system models, are important for making a breakthrough in developing a new generation of integrated assessment models (IAMs). Although this area mainly builds on theory and applied work in the natural sciences, including physics and mathematical modelling, the expertise of macroeconomists and large model builders is utilised in applications, as well as in conceptual and theoretical directions.

Task 1.2: Water, land, ecosystems, biodiversity

This task focuses on agricultural economics. It focuses on ecosystems and biodiversity in both land and water environments. Topics covered include land use, offshore renewable energy, hydro-energy, decarbonising ocean and river transport, port greening, the development of sustainable and circular fisheries, and the sustainable use of ocean and river resources. Our modelling includes the carbon sequestration and storage capacity of land, forests and the ocean. We are at the forefront of using high-granularity geospatial data in climate and energy modelling, building on recent advances in data science and working with large data sets. Our modelling of pathways towards sustainable, energy-efficient and climate-friendly agriculture considers the welfare of farmed animals, organic farming, the food supply and food security. Modelling the sustainable use of pesticides is connected to Task 4. A key component of this task is the analysis of the European Common Agricultural Policy. Therefore, the methodological expertise of public policy researchers is essential.

Task 1.3: Extreme events, natural hazards, and disaster risk 

This task will investigate the economic impact of extreme weather events related to climate change, such as hurricanes, cyclones, tornadoes, droughts, floods, wildfires, heavy snowfall and hailstorms, as well as climate change tipping points. To summarise the evidence, meta-analysis methods will be employed and further developed within the scope of this task. This task is closely connected with resilience building (Task 2.4) and extreme event finance, insurance, criminal law and civil law issues (Task 3.3). Cost-benefit analysis and risk modelling in finance and other economic disciplines are core methodological elements of this task. Mathematical and statistical expertise in modelling extreme events and other stochastic and probabilistic processes is also required.

Task 1.4: Pollution, air quality, and environmental health 

This task will investigate the impact of climate change on human health and the transferability of monetary values for the quality of natural ecosystems. We will examine the valuation of the health effects of activities that reduce energy and emissions, such as increasing physical activity (e.g. walking and cycling instead of driving), changing diets and modifying lifestyles. Labour and health economists, as well as medical experts, contribute to this task, both directly and in relation to methodologically relevant theoretical and applied issues in labour and health economics. Our work supports the EU Action Plan Towards Zero Pollution for Air, Water, and Soil. We consider the fact that pollution not only affects people’s health, but is also a primary cause of biodiversity loss, which reduces the ability of ecosystems to provide services such as carbon sequestration. This task is closely connected with the transport focus (WP2).

Task 1.5: Energy, natural resources, critical materials, infrastructure 

The task covers energy generation and the resources involved, such as oil and biomass, as well as the critical materials used in energy and transport infrastructure, and in the production of batteries, photovoltaic panels and other innovative energy-related structures. Our work includes the economic modelling of renewable energy resources, particularly solar, wind and bioenergy. We also consider the intermittent nature of wind and solar energy generation, and analyse the impact of electric vehicles on raw materials. We also analyse the impact of public policies, such as carbon taxes, feed-in tariffs and portfolio standards, on the supply of renewable energy and critical materials. This includes fuel and critical materials security considerations. Our work covers biofuels and other renewable or flexible fuels in transport, as well as the competition for demand between the power/heat and transport sectors for biofuels, including sustainable aviation fuels. Our aim is to understand the differences between alternative formal and informal mechanisms in energy markets. Here, we utilise our expertise in operational research and modelling complex systems.